Who’s in and who’s out in the Big Ten?

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Guaransheed  (the utmost promise that something will happen)

I don’t think a “guaransheed” means much outside of Michigan anymore, but it’s still the most effective way to show you mean something. These aren’t exactly the most surprising picks to make it to the tournament, but these teams will undoubtedly do so.

Ohio State is the first clear-cut team to make it to the postseason and also the favorite to win the Big Ten. Star Jared Sullinger has been fantastic all season, while role players William Buford and Deshaun Thomas help make their starting five a solid core group.

Both Michigan and Michigan State understand and receive the guaransheed to make it into the tournament. MSU, currently ranked #9, has had a great season by overachieving original expectations. Senior Draymond Green has muscled his way through the conference and into Big Ten Player of the Year consideration. U of M saw young freshman Trey Burke flawlessly fill the void Darius Morris left behind. Despite trouble on the road, they have played well enough at home to lock up a spot in March.

Wisconsin and Indiana round out the group. Wisconsin has been up and down against top ranked teams this season. If they hadn’t jumped out to a 12-2 record at the start of the season, they might not even get mentioned here. Their 2-5 record against top 25 teams is a glaring weak spot on their resume. Still, they have been ranked most of the season and play in this year’s best conference. They will make it to the postseason.

Indiana is a lock and might even go into the Big Ten tournament with a strong finish to the season. Their seven remaining opponents have a combined .500 win percentage with five of those seven games being in Indiana. We could see a good finish to the regular season for the Hoosiers.

On the bubble

Out of the five teams I have on the bubble in the Big Ten, I feel like only two of them can make it. These teams have lost close contests, but have also pulled through in some big games.

Illinois is the bubble team in the Big Ten most likely to make it to the NCAA tournament. The Illini sit at 16-7 overall and have beaten three ranked teams already. They have room to pad their record with games against Nebraska and Iowa. They also have five chances to add wins against top-25 teams with two games each against Michigan and Indiana, all very winnable games, and one game against Ohio State, who they’ve beaten once already this year.

John Shurna is certainly trying to make the most out of his last year at Northwestern, averaging nearly 19.6 points and 5.7 rebounds per game, leading his team in both categories. Though underachieving in Big Ten play, the Wildcats have eight games remaining. They have a fair chance to win all of them, even the game versus Ohio State at home. If they finish strong, which I think they will, and use the Big Ten Tournament to gain a few more wins come selection time, Northwestern will have its first NCAA bid in school history.

The three who won’t make it as of right now are Purdue, Iowa, and Minnesota. Purdue is 0-5 against top-25 teams and still has four more games against currently ranked teams. Only one of those is at home. Without Robbie Hummel becoming the star he was supposed to be, this Purdue team doesn’t have much chance. Iowa has the biggest chance to survive with a weak remaining schedule and a 5-6 record in the Big Ten.

Finally, Minnesota has done surprisingly well without senior leader Trevor Mbakwe, but five of its last seven games are against ranked opponents and another one is against Northwestern, which could prove to be a battle. The Gophers would need to win a majority of those to jump up into the true bubble contenders.

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