The B. East Report: The mad beast of March

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March is approaching. When the Madness approaches, our internal beasts come out: the excitement, the desperation, the rage. Oh yes. It’s a magical time of the year, with more brackets than a Goldman Sachs Tax Day party.

You know that the Big East is going to produce a 1-seed. Since 2006, five Big East teams have received a No. 1-seeding, including both Villanova and Connecticut in the 2006 tournament. Really, it’s a matter of who. And, as your humble Big East columnist, I have you covered in your eager search to be a guru of the Beast in the East.

 

The Rooted Seeds

1-Seed: No. 2 Syracuse Orange (25-1, 12-1 Big East)

Is anybody surprised? Syracuse earned a 1-seed in 2010 as well, and its status at No. 1 for six-consecutive weeks only confirmed its prowess. The Orange lost for the first time on Jan. 21 against a surging Notre Dame team in the Purcell Pavilion. Of course, that was without seven-foot sophomore forward Fab Melo, who recently made his return in a grand win against the St. John’s Red Storm.

With 78.1 points per game (21^st overall), 16.8 assists per game (12^th overall), and an average field goal percentage of 48.2 percent (22^nd overall), the Orange have defeated every ranked Big East team that they have faced, and even defeated No. 7 Florida (19-4, 7-1 SEC) early in the season.

 

‘Cuse rotates on the carousel of skill even better than Marquette does. Senior forward Kris Joseph, guard Dion Waiters and junior Brandon Triche all average double-digits in scoring, while Melo puts up 7.5 points per game and grabs 5.5 rebounds every match-up.

Yet, this doesn’t explain their dynamic play. Their 2-3 zone defense is also key. Waiters has stolen the ball 53 times this season, while Melo, despite missing three games due to an academic issue, has swiped away 62 shots. An orange tree is quite the sight.

 

 

3-Seed: No. 11 Georgetown Hoyas (19-5, 9-4 Big East)

Georgetown secured the 3-seed even after its loss to the Orange. I still marvel at the team’s height: seven players that are at least 6-feet-8-inches. Head coach John Thompson III can certainly recruit the big men, advancing with two forwards and a center.

‘Cuse was their most intensive challenge of the season. After that, it should be an easy skate to the Big East Tournament. Unless, of course, Seton Hall or Providence wants to bring somebody down with them. If they exit early in the Big East, they may fall to a 4-seed. Marquette could do it. ‘Course, that means having sophomore forward Davante Gardner. Who knows how he will be with that rightfully-suffering knee (290 pounds would make any knee suffer)?

Despite two large losses against West Virginia and Pittsburgh, Georgetown has defeated No. 18 Marquette, No. 23 Louisville and defending champion Connecticut. The giants of D.C. approach each opponent with center Henry Sims (11.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg) and forwards Hollis Thompson (13.7 ppg, 5.1 rpg) and Otto Porter (8.4 ppg, 6.6 rpg).

Every NCAA tournament needs those teams that advance as a train with blunt force trauma, slamming and pushing their way to the lay-up or the jumper. Georgetown is that team for the Big East and will be for 2012 March Madness.

However, the Hoyas only barely eked out wins against Louisville and Marquette, which presents a challenge for their future in the postseason. Against Marquette, they rallied from a 17-point deficit in the second half, shooting 76 percent against Jae Crowder and Davante Gardner. I can’t imagine that happening anywhere past the first round of the Big East Tourney.

Against Louisville, another 3-point win, the team had to rely mostly upon freshman forward Otto Porter, who shot for 14 points and grabbed fourteen rebounds. Starting guard Markel Starks, normally scoring only 8 points per game, threw up twenty for this game. When the juniors and seniors succumb to overwhelming defense, the offense will become frenzied.

However, the team also averages 5 blocks in every meeting. So…this team will take the 3-seed. In so many words.

 

 

4-Seed: No. 18 Marquette Golden Eagles (21-5, 10-3 Big East)

You know, the fact that Georgetown is seven places ahead of Marquette mystifies me. True, the Eagles lost to the Hoyas on Jan. 4, but only by three points. They have similar records; however, the fact that Marquette has lost to both Vanderbilt and LSU does not help their case.

Know why they lost to Vanderbilt? Commodore forward Lance Goulbourne (13 points, 16 rebounds) and center Festus Ezeli (8 points, 7 rebounds). These two dominated the paint despite Marquette’s Crowder grabbing ten rebounds himself.

Therefore, unless they lose in the first round of the Big East Tournament, or allow an unranked team—such as Cincinnati–to upset them, the Golden Eagles will earn a 4-seed. They rank 6^th overall in terms of assists (17.4 apg) and can rely on both Crowder and guard Darius Johnson-Odom to sink their field goals.

However, they need Davante Gardner back. With no Chris Otule, Marquette can’t survive the postseason without a reliable big man. The game against Notre Dame proved that when both Crowder and Johnson-Odom each scored only 12 points.

Despite this, Marquette has the advantage of conference standing: between Georgetown and the Eagles in the rankings lie such mid-majors as San Diego State, UNLV, Saint Mary’s and Creighton. Based on strength of schedule, the Golden Eagles do not have much to fear.

 

5-Seed/6-Seed: No. 23/24 Louisville Cardinals (20-5, 8-4 Big East)

The Cardinals will definitely get either a 5-seed or a 6-seed. With head coach Rick Pitino at the head of this scrappy team, they will certainly become a force in the Big East Tournament.

With junior Peyton Siva throwing the clutch assists and sophomore Gorgui Dieng grappling for rebounds, this team became 4^th in the Big East and earned a six-game winning streak. Senior Kyle Kuric drops his 13.2 points per game to package the deal, making Louisville a team that simply will not go away.

What disturbs me is their foul trouble. While watching their game against the Villanova Wildcats on Jan. 25, I heard the slaps count up as a beaver tail slams a creek bed. They committed 21 fouls against the physical ‘Cats, with starting guard Russ Smith (12.1 ppg) and forward Chane Behanan (9.4 ppg, 7.8 rpg) fouling out.

Course, even if that wasn’t enough, Siva and Kuric both fouled three times, while Dieng slapped four times. Sure, against Villanova, no big deal. But against Marquette, with their 73 percent free throw rate and 77 points per game? Or Syracuse?

Louisville has always been solid, but its youth shows in the scrap.

 

5-Seed/6-Seed: Notre Dame (17-8, 9-3 Big East)

I think Notre Dame deserves the 6-seed, or even the 5-seed. Even though Louisville is ranked No.24 in the country, its schedule strength is relatively even with the Irish’s. Notre Dame faced No. 4 Missouri, No. 23 Indiana, and Gonzaga in non-conference play. Louisville faced No. 1 Kentucky and Vanderbilt before Big East play began, but the Cardinals do not have the upset wins to completely secure their 5-seeding.

Think of this: both teams have sprinted since Jan. 21, creating six-game winning streaks with quick passing play (Notre Dame is ranked 65th in the country for assists per game, while Louisville is 53^rd). The Cardinals also claw away in the paint with 39.1 rebounds per game.

Of course, what does this really mean in the Big East? With sixteen teams, you could wipe out the bottom six while not having to actually face the five towering ranked teams at the top. This is exactly what Notre Dame has done, and they’ve won.

Look at their six-game streak. Guess who is among the teams they have defeated? No. 2 Syracuse. No. 19 Marquette. In fact, they knocked Connecticut from No. 19 to an unranked status.

Not to mention, the Irish beat the Cardinals on Jan. 7. Notre Dame deserves that 5-seed, but I’ll settle for 6.

 

The Blooming Seed

8-Seed/9-Seed: Cincinnati Bearcats (17-8, 7-5 Big East)

Yes, I realize that this team stained itself with the Dec. 10 Crosstown Punchout. Yet, they have bounced back incredibly. Ever since their upset of Connecticut with a last second three by sophomore Sean Kilpatrick, I’ve been observing this team. Even before upsetting the Huskies, this team took down the No. 11 Hoyas.

True, the team lost against St. John’s, Big East king of the missed three (28 percent from the arc). They also embarrassingly lost 61-54 to Rutgers. But let’s look at the numbers.

Senior forward Yancy Gates. 54 percent from the field. 12.6 points per game. 9.3 rebounds per game. Not something to sneeze at, especially when this team has to face such giants as Georgetown and Louisville.

Sophomore guard Sean Kilpatrick. 40 percent from the arc. 15 points per game. 5 rebounds per game. Oh, and he can shoot to win in the last three seconds against ranked opponents.

Oh, can’t forget about junior guard Cashmere Wright. 10.9 points per game. 4.7 assists per game. And 68 percent from the charity stripe? Nice.

Sure, they’re seventh in the Big East. However, after such a blemished beginning of the season, I think I can rely on this team. An upset of Louisville on Feb. 23 would give them a 9-seed, or maybe even an 8-seed. Don’t ignore these guys. They’re proven brawlers.

 

The Seed That Needs Some Water

12-seed: Connecticut Huskies (15-9, 5-7 Big East)

Ah, our valiant defending champions. Six losses in their past seven games. Losses against Seton Hall, Rutgers, Cincinnati and Notre Dame. Ever since that win at Notre Dame on Jan. 14, these young men are simply tired.

Doesn’t help that Jim Calhoun is on medical leave again. However, frankly, this is a young team. Plus, it’s a rebuilding year. I really hope that nobody expected freshman Ryan Boatright (10.6 ppg, 3.7 apg) to usher this team past the Sweet Sixteen. That’s unrealistic. The team has no senior starters, as star Kemba Walker entered the 2011 NBA Draft.

Skilled as freshman Andre Drummond (9.9 ppg, 7.5 rpg),  sophomore guard Jeremy Lamb (17.2 ppg, 4.5 rpg) and sophomore Shabazz Napier (13 ppg, 5.5 apg) are, this team is not sufficiently deep, nor does it have enough experience. Lamb and Napier already play at least 35 minutes a game, while Drummond and Boatright play 28 and 27 minutes a match, respectively.

 

Cincinnati and Notre Dame have both proven their prowess against this team. Frankly, that’s OK for defending champions. Based on their losing record in the Big East, unless they can defeat Depaul, Villanova, Providence or Pittsburgh, I predict a low seeding, probably above 12. After all, they did defeat Harvard and Florida State…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Dormant Seeds

 

South Florida Bulls (15-10, 8-4 Big East)

One should not discard the Bulls outright. They have a better conference record than Connecticut, Cincinnati and West Virginia. Yet, they haven’t defeated a ranked opponent all season. I don’t see the NCAA giving them a nod, but they have done relatively well this year.

 

13-Seed/14-Seed West Virginia Mountaineers (16-10, 6-7 Big East)

The Mountaineers have made the NCAA Tournament the past four seasons. In 2010, they even entered the Final Four. This year they face a losing record in the conference.

Curiously, they also record 38.3 rebounds per game (35^th  in nation) and 15.1 assists per game (35^th in country). Primarily, their progress can be credited to senior Kevin Jones, who has more than 16 double-doubles on the season and averages 20.6 ppg with 11.2 rpg. They upset Georgetown, yet lost to Louisville.

I can see West Virginia getting a 13- or 14-seed if they advance past the first and second rounds of the Big East Tournament. Again, this is a team that has historically been strong and has the numbers to be skilled. However, Kevin Jones can’t simply put this team on his back. Senior Darryl Bryant (16.8 ppg) has to start making more from the arc, especially as this team has a 32 percent perimeter rate.

 

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