No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 2 Syracuse: Who has the edge?

Tweet

As March approaches, the elite teams in college basketball have long separated themselves from the rest of the pack. There are three teams left with only one loss: Kentucky, Syracuse and Murray State. I think it’s safe to say that the Racers aren’t seen as front-runners for the national championship, so let’s just concentrate on the first two.

Similar Losses and Close Calls

The Orangemen lost at Notre Dame by nine points on Jan. 21. Kentucky lost at Indiana on a last second 3-pointer on December 10. Both teams were ranked number one, and no one expects an undefeated season these days from the “Big Six” conferences, so losing a game wasn’t a big surprise to anybody. Both teams have been on a tear since, but showed last week that neither team is invincible.

Kentucky went into Vanderbilt, a team that had been ranked in the preseason AP top-10, but had since fallen out of the top-25. Vanderbilt had beaten the last three teams to come into Nashville ranked No. 1, and gave Kentucky all it could handle before the Wildcats pulled it out in the end, 69-63

Syracuse looked poised to get upset by Louisville on Feb. 13, but a late 6-0 run put the Orangemen over the top. Louisville didn’t score a point in the final three minutes of the game and Syracuse won 52-51.

Are these the best two teams in the nation? Yes. Without a doubt. Can they be beaten? Of course. Will either team lose again before the tournament? I doubt it.

Remaining Schedules

Kentucky: Mississippi, at Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Georgia, at No. 14 Florida.

Syracuse: at Rutgers, Southern Florida, at Connecticut, No. 19 Louisville.

Kentucky will roll on Mississippi and Georgia. Mississippi State is ranked No. 23 by USA Today/ESPN, has great size in the post, but is coming off two awful losses. It will be a tough one for the Wildcats, but nothing they can’t handle.

Vandy at home will be much easier than Vandy on the road, not to mention Kentucky is currently riding a 49-game home winning streak. Kentucky pounded Florida at home, but the Gators’ style of play matches up perfectly against the ‘Cats. If the Gators outside shooting starts to fall, it could give Kentucky real problems.

Syracuse will stomp on Rutgers and Southern Florida. The Orangemen beat Connecticut at home by 18 points on Feb. 11. Going to Connecticut is never easy, but the Huskies have been a dumpster fire since head coach Jim Calhoun left the team for medical reasons. Connecticut has lost six out of its last seven games, and I don’t expect it to right the ship against Syracuse.

Again, the most intriguing and dangerous game is the last one. As previously mentioned, Syracuse barely escaped the KFC Yum! Center with a win, but should have a much easier time at home. Louisville’s zone completely shut down the Orangemen’s offense, but their defense saved the day.

Speaking of defense…

Who’s Better Defensively?

Kentucky-kind of close…but not really.

Don’t get me wrong, Syracuse is a great defensive team, but Kentucky is doing incredible things on that side of the court, including holding opponents to 35.8 percent shooting, ranking first in the nation. Syracuse ranks 12th at 38.4 percent. Kentucky is 53rd in opponent 3-point percentage at 31.3 percent. Syracuse ranks 69th at 31.8 percent.

Kentucky is on pace to potentially break the all-time team block record (315), set by Connecticut in 2004 when the Huskies won the national championship. Kentucky currently has 242 blocks, and is blocking 15.8 percent of opponent’s shots. They block shots when it really matters, too.

Syracuse is second in the nation in both categories with 195 blocks, and blocking 13.1 percent of opponents shots. To save you time and energy, Kentucky has 47 more blocks in one less game-absolutely staggering.

Syracuse is one of the best teams in terms of thievery, ranking 4th with nearly 10 steals a game. Kentucky sits at 167th with 6.5 steals per game. Syracuse is also one of the best scoring teams off of turnovers, largely due to its gaudy steal numbers.

Total rebounds aren’t a purely defensive statistic, but what the heck, I’ll slide it in here because it is very important come March. Kentucky has gotten better and better at rebounding the ball and is currently ranked 11th, grabbing 39.6 rebounds per game.

Rebounding has been a troubling area from Jim Boeheim’s Orangemen all year. They rank 102nd with 35.6 rebounds per game and are one of the worst teams out of the “Big Six” conferences at defensive rebounding, mostly because of its zone defense, which has allowed opponents to grab offensive boards time and time again.

Who’s Better Offensively?

Kentucky, though its much closer than the defensive end.

Kentucky scores 77.8 points per game to Syracuse’s 76.9. That one point difference doesn’t mean anything. It’s all about how those points scored.

Just a few games ago, Kentucky had six players averaging over 10 points per game, but now Marquis Teague and Darius Miller are down to 9.8 and 9.7 respectively. No team has ever finished the season with six players averaging double-digit points. That alone shows that this offense is something special.

Basically, Kentucky gets all of its points from six players. The rest of the team combines for less than nine points per game. Calipari never even thinks about putting in his bench, even at the end of games with an insurmountable lead. He won’t play players he doesn’t trust.

On the other hand, Jim Boeheim touts the best bench in the nation. It also helps that he has seven more players on the bench than Calipari does. The Syracuse reserves average over 30 points per game, lead by Dion Waters who averages 12.2 points.

The ability to rotate guys in and out the entire game keeps fresh legs on the court and may turn out to be a big factor deep in March when other teams will be getting wore down, especially young teams like Kentucky who’s freshmen aren’t used to playing so many games.

Both teams like to play around the rim, but Syracuse does so out of necessity more than Kentucky. Against Louisville, Syracuse shot 1-15 from behind the arc and 18 of its 21 field goals were either layups or dunks. Kentucky has had off nights from the 3-point line, but is much more consistent than the Orange.

The Wildcats shoot 37.3 from behind the arc, and has five legitimate 3-point shooters if you count Kyle Wiltjer, the seventh man for Kentucky. Syracuse shoots 34.4 percent from the 3-point line, and also has seven legitimate 3-point threats.

Who are the MVPs of each team?

Anthony Davis and Fab Melo.

Anthony Davis is more than likely the best player in the nation, and very well could win the award come season’s end. He averages 14 points, 10 rebounds (3 offensive), 1.5 steals and 5 blocks. He shoots 65 percent from the field and 70 percent from the free throw line. He is the quickest 6-11 player I have ever seen, has incredible hands, and can finish around the rim as well as anyone.

Fab Melo’s stat line is nothing like Davis’. He averages 7.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 3 blocks per game. He shoots 57.9 percent from the field and 64.1 percent from the free throw line (though he rarely shoots free throws). Melo gets 2.5 of his rebounds on the offensive end and he is the centerpiece of the zone defense. He’s not as electrifying  and won’t make you gawk at the television like Davis, but he is just as important to his team. OK, I guess he does make you gawk, sometimes.

These two big guys create a presence around the rim that no other teams in the nation has. That has been and will be their most important qualities come March.

So Who Would Win a Game Between the Two?

If I were a betting man, I would put my money on Kentucky for one reason: Anthony Davis. He is the ultimate game changer this year and completely commands the paint. He has already broken Shaquille O’Neal’s SEC freshman block record of 115, and currently has 128.

Syracuse would have to shoot well from the 3-point line and get to the free throw stripe more than usual to beat Kentucky. Kentucky has not played a team with a bench like the Orange’s this year because no other team has a bench like that.

I wouldn’t be too concerned about the fresh legs aspect because that would mean that Syracuse would try and push the ball up and down the court and beat Kentucky to the basket. I don’t care how fresh anyone’s legs are, that is not a good strategy against the Wildcats. For the bench to have the same affect it has had all year, it will have to come from outside shooting, of which it is very capable, but still inconsistent.

Kentucky showed against Florida that it has incredibly quick perimeter defense, and it will take away shots and make jump shooters drive towards the basket. That is what Syracuse wants to do, so instead of taking away the shots like it did against Florida, Kentucky would just man up and give the Orange players a little bit more space. If shots start to fall, the ‘Cats will jump on Syracuse like they did the Gators and rely on interior defense to contest shots at the rim.

The one thing that will be tough for the Wildcats is the zone defense. Kentucky has struggled mightily against the zone this year, mostly because they rarely see it. The Syracuse zone is as good as any in the nation and very well could give the Wildcats fits. It will be up to Terrence Jones to catch the ball in the middle of that zone and make the right decision, which we all know by now can be somewhat difficult for him. Jones will be the X Factor for Kentucky in March. How he handles that position is up to him.

All I know for sure is that these are two very good teams that are strikingly similar, yet very different. I absolutely hope we all get to see this game happen in March. I have a feeling we will.

Tweet