Bracketology: Mid-Majors

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Ah the mid-majors. They make every NCAA basketball tournament more compelling. They are always good for an upset or two come March and also make for a great game of “Guess What State They’re From.” This year, they seem to be scattered up and down in the top-25 which means we might see mid-majors upsetting mid-majors in the tournament. Ironic, isn’t it? As to who these schools might be, we need to take a closer look at who is guaranteed a spot and who needs to make a push to end the regular season.

Guarantees:

Any mid-major team in the top-25 right now will get a spot come Selection Sunday. Murray State is a lock right now being the only undefeated team left. The only question surrounding them is whether or not they can finish with a zero in the loss column. Creighton has been solid all season with potential All-American Doug McDermott leading the way. They have been ranked as high as #13 and are first in the country in field goal percentage.

Some teams that are not ranked but will get a spot in big dance include Middle Tennessee and Southern Miss. Both teams are expected to win their conference tournaments and have shown fantastic play in conference match-ups. Even if they don’t, Middle Tennessee and Southern Miss will both earn at-large bids.

Middle Tennessee’s losses have come against formidable opponents. They are 21-4 and have only one loss in conference play. The Sun Belt conference tournament should be a piece of cake for them considering just four teams have a winning record overall, excluding MTSU.

Having no bad losses and a few impressive wins, Southern Miss will be poised to enter the tournament. The Golden Eagles have a victory over Memphis and went into double overtime with Murray State. Their upcoming game against second-place Tulsa could be a huge game.

On the bubble:

Really anyone who isn’t favored to win their conference but still has a low loss total needs to rack up wins to end the season. Conferences like the Mountain West, Atlantic 10, and the WCC have multiple teams that fit this bill. Keep in mind that not all at-large births will be given to teams in these conferences, they just have more teams vying for them.

San Diego State, UNLV, and New Mexico each have no more than four loses. The winner of their conference tournament will get the bid, but this conference could see all three teams make it, or just one team. It depends who steps up in the final games of the regular season.

The Atlantic 10 has a clutter of teams that have nine losses or less. The front runners, Temple, Saint Louis, and Massachusetts, to name a few, need to stand out in front of the pack to earn an at-large bid. Otherwise, it will be a scramble for the automatic bid in the tournament which would make for very exciting, high-caliber conference games.

With the addition of BYU to the WCC, it has seen a major boost in competition. By giving Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga each two games against a quality BYU team, all three have a chance to pad their resume, giving the selection committee more of a reason to pick them as one of the 68 teams. Only Saint Mary’s is ranked, but BYU and Gonzaga boast 20-6 and 18-4 records, respectively. The West Coast conference has a chance to be well represented at March Madness.

Bonus Focus:

The Delta Devils of Mississippi Valley State have dominated the SWAC in a very unlikely fashion. They started the season 1-11 but have not lost since conference play began, winning 11 straight. Their tough non-conference games against the likes of North Carolina, Florida, and Wisconsin prepared them for the teams in their conference. They’ll need to run the table in their conference tournament, or else this interesting story might not mean much by season’s end.

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