Big 12 bracketology 101 – Round 2

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Not much has changed from last week. The top three teams in the conference are still locks, while Iowa State and Kansas State still have some work left to do to qualify for the NCAA tournament. The main difference is Texas working its way into the conversation, although, they remain on the very edge of the bubble.

Lock: Missouri, Kansas, Baylor

Circle the date, folks – February 25. That’s when Missouri travels to Kansas in a game that will most likely decide the winner of the Big 12 championship. Missouri (23-2, 10-2 Big 12) is looking more and more like a No. 1 seed and barring any bad losses the remainder of the season, may have already locked one up with its impressive win over Baylor on Saturday. The Tigers also eked out a win at Oklahoma this past week, and any win on the road in conference play is impressive. Missouri has a couple tough home games left against Kansas State and Iowa State, but wins should be expected.

Missouri may not be the only team from the Big-12 to receive a top seed. How about them Jayhawks?  Kansas (21-5, 11-2 Big 12) won all three of its games in the past week, including a 14-point victory at then-No.6 Baylor. If the Jayhawks finish the rest of the season undefeated, which certainly is possible, they’ll be a lock for a top seed in the NCAA tournament. A rematch with Missouri looms, but Kansas gets them at home and a victory there will most likely mean a Big 12 championship.

Baylor, Baylor, Baylor, Baylor. The Bears (22-4, 9-4 Big 12) went 1-2 this past week, losing by double digits to both Kansas at home and on the road against Missouri. There is no question that the Bears are going to make the tournament and should even end up with a No. 2 or No. 3 seed. But can they really feel that good about themselves when they got swept by the top two teams in the conference and three of those games weren’t even close? The good news is that Baylor is 22-0 against everyone else, including a 15-point victory over Iowa State on Monday night. They just better hope they don’t see the Tigers or Jayhawks in the NCAA tournament.

Work left to do: Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas

Iowa State (18-8, 8-5 Big 12) lost some ground this week. The Cyclones lost two of three with their lone win coming at home against Texas A&M. The Cyclones should be able to get some easy wins with Oklahoma and Texas Tech coming to town. But they may need to get a victory or two in their last three games, and seeing that those contests come on the road against Kansas State and Missouri and the home finale versus Baylor, it’s not going to be easy. Right now, though, the Cyclones should be feeling good about their chances.

Kansas State (17-8, 6-7 Big 12) is falling and falling fast. While the Wildcats beat a bad Texas Tech team at home this past week, they fell on the road to Texas and at home to Kansas. The Wildcats have lost four of the past six and must travel to Baylor and Missouri for their next two matchups. That’s three games in a row against Top 10 teams, which helps the strength of schedule. But if they fail to win any of those then it may not matter. If the Wildcats don’t fix things up soon, Kansas State may play itself out of the tournament.

Texas (16-9, 6-6 Big 12) has clawed its way back into the discussion with two wins last week over Texas A&M and Kansas State and has won three in a row overall. However, with their best win coming against Temple, they still have a ways to go, and with four of their last six games coming on the road it’s not going to be easy. If the Longhorns want serious consideration for the tournament, an upset of Baylor at home may give them the best shot. Reaching 20 wins would help their case as well.

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