The Ahearn/Redick weekend locks

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Like Blake Ahearn from the free throw line or J.J. Redick from behind the arc, you know these picks are straight cash, homey.

Before I even go anywhere with my own predictions, let’s look at last week’s so-called, “money picks.”

1. Baylor will beat Mizzou on Saturday, but split the season series.

Last week’s prediction: “Baylor wins mostly because the game is in Waco, 77-65.”

What actually happened: This pick gets a bit of credibility. Yes, Baylor lost to the Tigers, but all of the talk about an even matchup between the two teams held up to the hype. The Tigers, however, were able to pull out the win, giving this pick a big ol’ chunk of fail.

 

2. After a horrendous start to the season, the Vanderbilt Commodores will finish no worse than 2nd in the SEC when it is all said and done. The ‘Dores beat Mississippi State at home.

Last week’s prediction: “Vanderbilt is legit, ladies and gentlemen…Vandy rolls over Mississippi State, a fellow SEC contender, 74-60.”

What actually happened: This is another pick that came this close to graduating to the big leagues and looking like a good pick. Vanderbilt, a preseason top-10 team, disappointed again. The Commodores stood toe-to-toe with the Bulldogs, but Mississippi State was able to sneak by Vandy with a 78-77 win. Close… but nonetheless, wrong.

 

3. Are you ready for this? The following teams are on upset alert: Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke and Kansas. One of them will lose on Saturday. Yep. I said it.

Last week’s prediction: “I know a lot of you probably think I’m cheating a bit by selecting four different teams that could potentially be upset this weekend. Fine. I’ll pick one. The Jayhawks get knocked off in Austin, 80-71.”

What actually happened: I’m torn on this one. On one hand, half of these teams were on the wrong end of an upset. Syracuse fell to Big East foe Notre Dame, and the Blue Devils lost at home to a surging Florida State team. On the other hand, Kentucky won and moved into the top spot, and Kansas moved into the top 5 this week with wins over Texas and Texas A&M. Though in saying that, both were close games that had the potential to go either way. I’ll give it the benefit of the doubt to avoid being shutout, but if we’re going to narrow it down to one game, one of the games that was actually predicted correctly would have made for a better choice.

 

Now, for this week’s picks…

1. Pitt finally realizes its talent and upsets Georgetown

There’s virtually no reason that this prediction should be made. The Panthers have been the epitome of disappointing this season, going from a preseason top-10 team to tied for last place in the Big East. The Panthers just can’t be that bad, can they? They certainly have talent in players like Preseason Big East Player of the Year, Ashton Gibbs, and Jamie Dixon is a better coach than to have his team sitting in last place in the Big East.

Meanwhile, Georgetown is currently a top-10 team and tied with Marquette for second place in the conference. The Hoyas feature some nice wins against conference foes Louisville and Marquette, but have also lost to some decent teams in West Virginia and Cincinnati. Most recently, they just barely got by a not-so-good Rutgers team.

I think Pitt finally turns a corner in Big East play after beating Providence and taps into the talent that made them a preseason top 10 pick. I think a big game from Gibbs is going to go a long way for this Panthers team. Oh, and playing at home (a historically tough place to play) certainly doesn’t hurt their chances.

Pitt gets its first good win of the season, 72-66.

 

2. BYU knocks off Saint Mary’s, but the Gaels get the last laugh and win the WCC

Sadly, Jimmer Mania is over at BYU, which is quite sad because it actually made for some half-decent music. Even without Fredette, this is still a good BYU team. Earlier this season, BYU was only a few plays away from beating a top-ranked Baylor team. Despite losing to the Gaels earlier this season, the Cougars are fortunate enough to be able to play this one in front of their home crowd.

The Gaels are currently undefeated in WCC play, which is an obvious positive, but also puts a target on their back. Besides, in today’s college basketball scene, it’s extremely difficult for any team to go undefeated in any format. Saint Mary’s certainly has the ability to put up points, but have also shown an ability to play some defense, holding teams to just under 60 points per game.

This game has the looks of being a much closer matchup than the one earlier this season, especially with BYU playing at home.

BYU beats Saint Mary’s, 81-76.

 

3. Top teams continue to fall, and this week it’s… Kansas!

This prediction might be a little bit irresponsible, but let me explain.

In their last meeting, Iowa State gave the Jayhawks all they could handle. The Cyclones actually went into halftime with a lead and even led by as much as 12 in the second half. It took a big second half from Tyshawn Taylor in order to overcome the Cyclones, who ended up losing 82-73.

Regardless of that outcome, it’s going to be tough for Iowa State to replicate that showing. Bill Self is one of the best coaches in the country and will make sure that this isn’t a trap game for the Jayhawks. Thomas Robinson has been great for Kansas, and the remainder of the team is very balanced.

Still, Iowa State isn’t going to go away easily. Royce White dominated the paint the last time out, grabbing 17 boards, and I would not be surprised to see some of that in this game. Iowa State also features a deep lineup, sporting 9 players averaging double-digit minutes. The Cyclones also benefit from not playing in front a very difficult Kansas crowd, which could make a significant difference if they’re again forced to hold a lead late in the game.

Iowa State finishes what it started this time around and beats Kansas 76-73.

And just to avoid any potential shutout…

 

4. Towson loses.

Just in case the other predictions don’t quite pan out, this will be the safety net. Never said the predictions had to be bold, folks.

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