Who wins the Commonwealth Cup … and the ACC Coastal division title?
from uvamagazine.org
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With one more victory this Saturday, the Virginia Tech Hokies will be headed to the ACC Championship Game in Charlotte.
But first they have to escape Charlottesville.
The people who developed the ACC schedule must be patting themselves on the back for this one. Virginia (8-3, 5-2 Coastal) plays host to 5th-ranked Virginia Tech (9-1, 6-1 Coastal) with a conference championship berth on the line. This matchup features the top two teams in the Coastal division, and if Virginia (a 4.5 point underdog, according to Vegas Insider) can pull off an upset, they’d be meeting Clemson in the ACC Championship Game based on ownership of the head-to-head tiebreaker over Va Tech.
A compelling game, whichever way you slice it. One game to determine in-state bragging rights and a shot at the Orange Bowl. Tech, a favorite on the road in a winner-take-all matchup. The balanced offense of the Cavaliers against the stifling Hokies defense. And, with the way this season is going, a few more upsets could see Virginia Tech finding themselves higher up the polls and maybe, just maybe, in position for a spot in the BCS National Championship Game.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The Hokies must take care of business, on the road, against this tough Virginia squad. The matchups break down like this:
VT Offense vs. UVA Defense
The Hokies have won 2 of the last 3 ACC Championships, both with Tyrod Taylor at the helm. Holding school records in single-season passing touchdowns, career passing yards, and career rushing yards and touchdowns, he left big shoes to fill. Enter Logan Thomas.
Thomas holds a distinct size advantage over Taylor (6-6, 254 vs. 6-1, 217), and seems the prototypical size for a traditional drop-back passer.
So would it surprise you if I said he is currently tied with Michael Vick for most single-season rushing TDs by a quarterback under Frank Beamer?
Indeed, Thomas is a dual threat, having thrown for more than 2,300 yards and 16 touchdowns this season, to go along with the 9 rushing TDs he’s accumulated.
What unnerves opposing defenses, however, is that Logan Thomas is not the Hokies’ biggest weapon.
That distinction would go to junior running back David Wilson, who has already racked up 1,442 yards on just 231 carries, for an alarming YPC average of 6.2. His 7 touchdowns are second on the team to the big fellow under center, and these two make up a large part of the 200+ rushing yards that VT averages per game.
Lining up against all that ground power is the Virginia Cavaliers defense. They’re no slouches, holding teams to just over 20 points per game. They’ve held the two ranked teams that they’ve played (#12 Georgia Tech and #25 Florida State) to 21 and 13 points, respectively.
Georgia Tech is probably a better barometer for this upcoming Virginia Tech clash, as both teams rely on a heavy ground attack. The Cavaliers boast the nation’s 27th-best rushing defense, giving up 123 yards per game, and CBS Sports has them as the 24th-best overall defense in the country.
Virginia’s defense is notoriously stingy in the first quarter, having held nine of their eleven opponents scoreless in the first frame. This trend continued against Florida State. The Cavaliers hold the national lead for fewest points allowed in the first quarter, with a measly 10 points in eleven games. Tech will need to buck this trend and come out hot, or else risk being swallowed up by 60,000-plus rabid Cavs fans.
UVA Offense vs. VT Defense
Virginia’s offense is capable of some big plays. The Cavs have thrown for 15 touchdowns through the air, and seven different receivers have caught a TD pass of over 27 yards. In their 28-21 win over Miami, they converted on touchdown passes of 53 and 78 yards, and executed a halfback option for a touchdown.
If this were a high school yearbook, the player most likely to continue this big-play pattern is wide receiver Kris Burd. With six catches last week, he passed Heath Miller for #2 all-time at UVA in career receptions, finishing the day with 149. He also has a catch in 34 of his last 35 games, an incredible run. Look for Burd to stretch the defense, and leave openings for Tim Smith and Perry Jones, both of whom have 3 touchdown catches on the year.
When it comes to rushing the ball, UVA is extremely balanced. They are 40th nationally in rushing, at 177 yards per game. The aforementioned Perry Jones leads the team in both carries (170) and yards (870), but Kevin Parks has put up 8 TDs to Jones’s 5. Clifton Richardson has punched in a couple rushing touchdowns, and even quarterback Michael Rocco has found the endzone on two occasions.
With big-play threats through the air and a multitude of weapons on the ground, Virginia looks dangerous with the ball.
That is, until you see who they’re lining up against.
Virginia Tech’s defense this season has been simply dominant, holding teams to just under 17 points per game, good for 10th in the nation. In terms of yards, the Hokies are holding teams to slightly over 100 rushing and 200 passing, which are 13th and 32nd nationwide, respectively. Seemingly, you don’t get much past these guys.
But, as Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast, my friend!”
A quick peek at Virginia Tech’s recent scores shows an alarming trend. Sure, they started off the season rolling defensively, holding their first 4 opponents to an average of exactly ten points per.
Then they were stomped 23-3 by Clemson.
Including this loss, the Hokies have given up an average of 21 points over their last 7, including 14 to an anemic Boston College offense and 26 to a very one-dimensional Georgia Tech squad.
This might have something to do with the fact that three opening-day defensive starters have gone down with season-ending injuries: linebackers Bruce Taylor and Jeron Gouveia-Winslow, and defensive tackle Antoine Hopkins. With these three out, there may be running lanes against an inexperienced Virginia Tech front seven.
Intangibles
Location, location, location. In college football, as in real estate, location is everything. Yes, Virginia Tech has looked terrific at times this year, but they’ve struggled on the road. Beating East Carolina by 7 and Duke by 4 does not bode well for a huge in-state rivalry game away from home.
That being said, UVA isn’t exactly a powerhouse at home. They needed overtime to get past Idaho, scraped Georgia Tech by 3, and then lost to lowly NC State by 14. Beating Duke by 10 at home 2 weeks ago helped, as did the huge win over Florida State last week in Tallahassee. But overall, Charlottesville isn’t the most intimidating place to play.
In addition, the magnitude of the game and relative proximity of the schools will bring out a large host of Hokie faithful. Don’t be surprised to see a swath of maroon and orange this Saturday in Scott Stadium.
Prediction
Virginia Tech is banged up on defense, yet still a 4.5 point favorite. Virginia is coming off a momentum-building win at Florida State. The Cavaliers have it all to play for in front of their home crowd, with a trip to the ACC Championship Game on the line. The Hokie fans will be in full voice to support their team in this battle for state supremacy.
In the end, I see it as the Hokies over the Cavaliers, 17-13.
Sources:
ESPN.com
CBSsports.com
Virginiasports.com
Washingtontimes.com
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catfan1
Big rivalry games like this one are always fun because the statistics and records usually mean little. This is the type of game that makes college football so much fun. The emotions will be high and I would suspect the team that makes the least misakes in this type of environment will likely come out on top.