Hockey East prediction: BC skates past BU

Boston College will look to repeat as Hockey East Tournament champions

My Predictions:

1. Boston College
2. Boston University
3. Maine
4. New Hampshire
5. Merrimack
6. Massachusetts
7. Vermont
8. Northeastern
9. Providence
10. UMass Lowell

Analysis:

Boston College will be anchored by two of the best defensemen in the country in Brian Dumoulin and Tommy Cross (who lives across the hall from me). In addition, they return 20-point forwards Bill Arnold, Barry Almeida, Paul Carey and Pat Mullane, as well as perhaps the single most talented player in the conference in junior Chris Kreider. Losses have hit the Eagles hard, with top scorers Cam Atkinson, Brian Gibbons and Jimmy Hayes now vying for NHL roster spots in Pittsburgh, Chicago and Columbus, respectively. Additionally, I’d be remiss to overlook the graduation of two-time national champion goaltender John Muse, who will go down as one of the best to ever guard the cage for the Eagles. However, recruiting is a massive strength of Jerry York and his staff, and early returns are positive: freshman Johnny Gaudreau has 4 points through 2 games. The high-flying Eagles should continue their winning ways thanks the time-tested hockey motif: blue line experience and fresh blood up top.

Boston University lost only three players from last year: Marshfield’s own defenseman David Warsofsky, forward Joe Pereirra, and seldom-used netminder Adam Kraus. The Terriers went 19-12-8 last season overall and finished 3^rd in Hockey East with a 15-6-6 mark. Primed for a deep run in both the Hockey East and NCAA tournaments, the Terriers will be tough to beat with veteran Kieran Millan between the pipes, as well as an exorbitant amount of attacking talent. Coming off a 34-point sophomore campaign, forward Alex Chiasson’s line will draw top defensive pairs from their opponents. Interestingly enough Chiasson, despite being high scorer last year, will start this season on the 2^nd line. Corey Trivino centers Chris Connolly and the speedy Sahir Gill on the first line, a dangerous assignment for any defensive pairing.

Maine remains high in our predicted standings, despite having missed the NCAA tournament in each of the last four years. They do return a pair of 30+ point scorers in Spencer Abbott and Brian Flynn, plus an experienced netminder in Dan Sullivan. He will be the workhorse for this team, as fellow goalie Shawn Sirman, who saw big minutes last year, has left the team during the offseason. By far the biggest loss for Maine is Gustav Nyquist (affectionately referred to as “Nyquil”), one of the most dynamic forwards that Hockey East has seen in a while. The Swede is now plying his trade in the Detroit Red Wings system, and will be a hard man to replace. Inconsistency in all areas is Maine’s biggest weakness, and they will need to play a team game and minimize the penalties if they want to end up in Tampa this season for the NCAA tournament.

New Hampshire hit the ground running in 2010-2011 and never looked back, finishing with a 22-11-6 record (17-6-4 Hockey East, 2^nd). Admittedly, losses have hit the Wildcats hard. Their three top scorers are gone, as are offensive defenseman Blake Kessel and backline stalwart Matt Campanale. The reason for the 4th-place spot is simple: goaltending. Matt DiGirolamo is about as solid between the pipes as you could hope to find anywhere in the country. Playing in every one of his team’s games last year, MDG compiled a .923 save percentage and a 2.43 GAA, which is absolutely remarkable in the high-scoring world of college hockey. DiGirolamo will be able to bail out the relatively inexperienced blueliners in front of him, while the Wildcats will find goals from forwards young and old. The speedy Stevie Moses returns poised for a big season, and the Wildcats have snatched up the Eastern Junior Hockey League Offensive Player of the Year in freshman Matt Willows. Rebuilding might be too strong a word, as the Wildcats may surprise some people.

Merrimack was a massive surprise last year in Hockey East, finishing 4^th in the conference with a record of 25-10-4 (16-8-3). The loss of prolific scorer Stephane Da Costa to the Ottawa Senators will certainly be difficult to overcome, but Merrimack will be hungry to repeat their success after having a taste. The return of senior goaltender Joe Cannata (2.48 GAA, .911 save percentage) is a massive boost, as he chose to return for his senior year rather than turn pro with the Vancouver Canucks. This shows his confidence that his team can make another deep tournament run. With three 30-point scorers returning, Merrimack won’t creep up on people this year, but will remain strong.

Massachusetts is in an odd spot right now. Last year can only be termed a rebuilding year, as they carried 14 freshmen, by far the most in Hockey East. All those players now have college hockey experience, which can only be a good thing. The downside to this is that while UMass rebuilt, their stud senior goaltender Paul Dainton was left to fend for himself. With Dainton lost to graduation, UMass will have to rely on either sophomore Jeff Teglia or freshmen Kevin Boyle or Steve Mastalerz. The ultimate lack of experience will prevent UMass from a top half finish.

Vermont will rely on the same thing as New Hampshire will this season: a seasoned goaltender. Rob Madore has 100 games of college hockey under his belt in net for the Catamounts, and a career 2.68 GAA and .911 save percentage. Senior two-way defenseman Drew MacKenzie will anchor this team, and will be the man they look to all season for leadership. Last season’s 7^th place finish in Hockey East came partly as a result of their 82 goals scored, which was second worst in the conference. Five incoming freshmen forwards will augment the returning Sebastian Stallberg, Chris McCarthy and Connor Brickley up top. Vermont will improve slightly, but don’t expect anything miraculous from the Catamounts this season.

Northeastern had one of the most tumultuous offseasons in recent memory. The Huskies lost the majority of their scoring, their head coach, two talented rising sophomores in Brodie Reid and Jamie Oleksiak, and three highly-touted recruits. That’s the bad news. The good news, such as it is: after a year playing for the Dubuque Saints of the USHL, former Boston University forward Vinny Saponari will be skating for the Huskies this year. Saponari had a 30-point season for the Terriers as a sophomore, and the prospect of his teaming up with Scituate, MA native Rob Dongara is certainly intimidating. Another bonus is the return of heavily experienced junior goaltender Chris Rawlings, who had a .920 save percentage last season. However, the depth at the forward position just isn’t there for NU this season, and I’d be shocked to see a top half finish.

Providence is a perennial Hockey East bottom-feeder. After a 9^th place finish in the conference last season, it is tough to see the Friars improving at all. They graduated 6 of their 9 double-digit scorers, and will have to rely heavily on senior goaltender Alex Beaudry to steal some games. Fellow senior netminder Justin Gates will push Beaudry for starts, bringing more leadership between the pipes. The Friars were anemic on both sides of the puck last season, ranking last in scoring offense and 8^th in scoring defense. Six forward recruits seem poised to play substantial minutes on the lower lines, and it remains to be seen if senior Matt Bergland can return to the 20 point plateau he hit in his first two years in Providence. The Friars will play some hard fought games, and have already beaten BU once in this young season, but when the dust settles they will surely be near the bottom.

UMass Lowell had an abomination of a season last year. At 5-25-4, it is no wonder they come into this season with a new coach in Norm Bazin. If experience is the driving force behind Hockey East success, the River Hawks are in trouble. A ratio of 23 underclassmen to just 9 upperclassmen, mixed with a brand new coach (who did play for UM-L from 1990-94) does not bode well. In addition, there is absolutely no consistency between the pipes, as Lowell used 3 different goaltenders equally last season and will add a 4^th in freshman Brian Robbins this season. One bright spot comes in the addition of defenseman Malcolm Lyles. Lyles, a junior transfer from Boston College, was a huge crowd favorite and it will be interesting to see the reaction he elicits upon his return to Conte Forum.

So there you have it. Hockey East, in a nutshell. And if those predictions are wrong, the steak and cheese at Lower’s on me.

Sources:

http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2011/10/07_2011-12_hockey_east_preview.php

http://insidecollegehockey.com/inch/2011/10/02/hea_preview_1112/